The real estate
rebound that lifted property values around the world is losing momentum, Bank of Nova Scotia says in a new report.
Housing
demand and prices slipped in the second quarter, senior economist
Adrienne Warne wrote in the bank's Global Real Estate Trends Report
Tuesday. The market was sideswiped by moderating global growth,
volatility in financial markets and weak job creation.
“Global
real estate markets entered 2010 with a renewed sense of optimism,
piggybacking on the broader economic recovery under way,” she wrote.
“Housing demand and pricing improved in the first quarter of the year in
the majority of the advanced nations we track, benefitting from
ultra-low interest rates
, improved affordability, and in some cases, government purchase incentives.”
Still,
gains were made. Australia and Canada saw double-digit gains in
inflation adjusted prices, “mirroring their relatively more favourable
employment and lending conditions.”
Sweden and Switzerland posted
increases, while in Britain home prices moved back into positive
year-over- year territory for the first time in two years. The U.S. and
French markets reported marginal declines.
Spain and Ireland saw
home prices fall year over year in the quarter, with high inventories
and high unemployment hurting the market. Japan, which has been in a
20-year slump, also saw prices slip.
“The recent slowdown has been
most dramatic in Canada,” the report states. “Average home prices in Q2
were up just 6.8 per cent year-over-year, compared with 16.6 per cent
year-over-year in Q1. Sales, while still at a high level, have trended
steadily lower alongside reduced affordability and exhausted pent-up
demand.”
She expects Canadian prices to be “roughly flat” for the rest of the year.
“In
some of the hardest-hit markets facing ongoing deleveraging by
households and governments, the U.S., the U.K., Spain and Ireland
included, Scotia Economics continues to anticipate a multi-year period
of adjustment,” the report stated. “In higher growth nations such as
Canada and Australia, housing activity should prove much more subdued
than in recent years.”
Canadian sellers have been asking for more money than new builders, the report added.
Between 2000 and the first half of 2010, the average cost of a new home increased by just over 50 per cent.
“Over
the same period, the average price of a resale home more than doubled,”
the report said. “Traditionally, the demand and pricing for new homes
mirror, but with a lag, trends in the resale market. When resale housing
selection is limited, and/or prices are increasing sharply, buyers are
more likely to consider a new home purchase.”
The reason? The
report pointed to “a shortage of resale listings relative to demand, a
boom in renovation activity that has added value to the existing stock
of housing, and rising urban land values.”
“The divergence in new
and resale home prices is seen in most markets across the country, but
to varying degrees,” the report said.
“The biggest gap has opened
up in British Columbia, where the lack of developable land in its
largest city is a major contributor to its record high home prices. On
the other hand, new home prices have largely tracked resale prices in
Alberta and Saskatchewan, where a massive influx of population attracted
to the region's booming economy, and the inherent lag in adding
sufficient new housing stock, fuelled across-the-board appreciation.”